So close, but no cigar (or win!)

A few days after a France match that threaten to be embarrassing but ended up frustrating because we came so close to winning it. For no other reason then it was a match we won, here is a shot from the RDS Arena a few days earlier.

Sat in the North stand on a very cold Dublin Thursday evening, we saw Leinster beat Aironi 21-16. Not exactly the easy victory we might have expected over a team sat very firmly at the bottom of the table, but as we're in six nations season Leinster fielded a team that was practically third string.

Small consolation for losing to the French, but with a top four finish in the league looking good and a Heineken Cup quarter final in early April, it's not all bad for rugby in Dublin.

Game over.

Two weeks ago, An Taoiseach and leader of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party, Brian Cowen announced he was happy with the outcome of the confidence vote he had called and that he would "lead a party determined to face into the upcoming electoral contest". He sounded like a premiership manager claiming he had the full support of the team's board of directors.

Today the very same Brian Cowen gave his farewell speech following the dissolution of the 30th Dáil. His is no longer the leader of his country, he is no longer the leader of his party, and his political performance over the last two weeks has been so disastrous that he will not be contesting the parliamentary seat he held for 27 years. There can have been few falls from political grace that were as great, or as quick.

It has not been a good two weeks for Mr Cowen, but it has been a worse two years for the Country. Despite the inevitability that Mr Cowen's leadership will go down in Irish history as the worst the country has seen since it's formation, Mr Cowen still gave us one last great quote;

"I leave very proud of the fact that my integrity is intact and my good name remains intact"

There can be little doubt that Brian Cowen was, and still is, in denial.
The poster are up already
But for now, we get to move on without Mr Cowen. By the time I reached Blackrock Dart Station at 5pm this evening the election posters had already gone up. In just over three weeks we will have a new government.

There are commentators who think Fianna Fáil could see their current total of 70 seats drop to the low 20s, and given the failed policies and cronyism that they became infamous for, it seems like just deserts. Maybe, just maybe, Fianna Fáil and the voters have learnt a very expensive lesson.

08:30am, Monday morning.

Well, not quite 08:30, according to my camera it was actually 08:26, or about 15 minutes after sunrise. Being this close to the coast does make for some spectacular shots, so while every other commuter was heading towards Blackrock village for the start of the week,  I stopped to look east, and dragged my camera from my bag.

Click for a larger image

08:30am, Wednesday morning.

As views during a commute to work go, this one is not too shabby.

Click for a larger versionThe photograph was stitched together from several shots taken from the railway footbridge at Blackrock station. Apart from the slowly decaying rusted remains of the Blackrock baths diving tower, from right to left you can make out the west pier of Dun Loaghaire harbour, Howth Head 12km across Dublin Bay and the twin chimneys of Poolbeg power station.

While the view on a nice day can be incredible, on a windy winter morning when the swell in the bay gets up the walk over the footbridge can be bitterly cold, and wet. But this morning was one of the good days.

A leader hangs on

So Brian Cowen lives to lose another day, or as the cartoon on the front cover of this morning's Irish Times put it "FOUR!...MORE!...weeks".

If you assume Fianna Fáil lose the upcoming election then all that remains for the party is to retain as much political influence as possible. The obvious way to do that is by winning as many seats as possible and I can't see how having Cowen at the helm aids that goal. Maybe Fianna Fáil have given up on holding much influence in the next parliament and are instead trying to draw a line under the current economic crisis and are planning to rebuild the party once Cowen steps down.

The problem with politicians is that there frequently is no telling from one moment to the next what their motivation is. Maybe Cowen really does have supporters, maybe none of the contenders for the leadership want to be associated with election defeat, maybe they want to attach as much blame as possible to Cowen and then cut him and the blame lose. But for now FF has left a man with a 14% satisfaction rating in charge, and that can't be an accident.