A leader hangs on

So Brian Cowen lives to lose another day, or as the cartoon on the front cover of this morning's Irish Times put it "FOUR!...MORE!...weeks".

If you assume Fianna Fáil lose the upcoming election then all that remains for the party is to retain as much political influence as possible. The obvious way to do that is by winning as many seats as possible and I can't see how having Cowen at the helm aids that goal. Maybe Fianna Fáil have given up on holding much influence in the next parliament and are instead trying to draw a line under the current economic crisis and are planning to rebuild the party once Cowen steps down.

The problem with politicians is that there frequently is no telling from one moment to the next what their motivation is. Maybe Cowen really does have supporters, maybe none of the contenders for the leadership want to be associated with election defeat, maybe they want to attach as much blame as possible to Cowen and then cut him and the blame lose. But for now FF has left a man with a 14% satisfaction rating in charge, and that can't be an accident.