Welcome to the start of the next 10 years

Since the IMF rode into town last week there has been lots of talk of Ireland surrendering it's sovereignty to save the banks, and asking how those who gave their lives to free Ireland would think of the events of the last two weeks.

The journey that led to Ireland's freedom to determine its own future was a long and costly one. Those who gave their lives for the freedom of this country may be appalled by what we've done, but freedom to make our own decisions does not guarantee that the decisions we make are all positive. What we did with that self determination was ultimately elect ineffective politicians, where was our concern for the freedom and future of the republic while our elected officials were laying the foundations of the crisis we are now facing. Regardless of the cost of it's victory, the value of your freedom may go down as well as up. It's not that Freedom is overrated, it's that those who enjoy it, value it less than those who paid for it.

Had the country gone bankrupt while trying to offer the best education, healthcare or social welfare that €80 billion can buy I could at least understand that we the people may have got some benefit from it, but that €80 billion was spent to save private organisations. The country didn't go bust, the banks did. The austerity measures and bail-out are not designed to ensure the short term freedom and welfare of the population, but something much more insidious, that wonderfully nebulous modern concept of confidence in the financial market. Having made bad investments and collapsed into a grave of their own making the bank loses have simply been passed onto the public. Far from letting the market decide we have allowed capitalism to reap the profits and socialism to bear the loses, investors have been saved by the Irish public

The Fianna Fail party has governed this country since 1997, and for most of the last 50 years. Having presided over the greatest sovereign crisis since the formation of the state it's members have seen the writing on the wall and those who can are starting to desert the government ship as it starts to sink. The minister for Justice announced he will not stand in the next election, and thanks to a loophole introduced by another Fianna Fail minister for Finance he will get his full ministerial pension even through he is taking early retirement by effectively resigning while in office. I'm glad the party that presided over the boom and bust are still in power as the IMF bail out the country, and I can hope that for at least the term of the next government we may see an end to rampant cronyism that they seemed to stand for. But it seems just as likely that incoming government, no matter how good, will have a rough ride for next five years.

I read a joke last year that asked what the difference between Iceland and Ireland was? The punchline was, one letter and about six months. While I don't believe we should be looking to leave the Euro, Iceland's ability to devalue it's currency and impose capital controls have helped limit their slump. Meanwhile Ireland is entering the third year of public spending cuts and banks guarantees, the IMF has just bailed us out to the tune of €80 million, yet the all important market confidence that we are desperately chasing is no where to be seen. Paul Krugman summed it up in his op-ed piece in the New York times last week;

"you have to wonder what it will take for serious people to realize that punishing the populace for the bankers' sins is worse than a crime; it's a mistake."

The next ten years don't look like they're going to be fun.