Today was a red letter day for me. Something happened that I've known was coming for a few weeks. Something I thought I would never see. Something that was, and is again, a defining part of Ireland's history.
In the past few days a firm who describe themselves as a "Global financial services firm and a market leader in securities, asset management and credit services." published a report. Their report has received some coverage in the Irish press because some believe it shows that Ireland is on the way to turning a corner. The report written by this foreign brokerage firm advised it's clients to buy Irish bonds over the next few weeks because it describes last week's stress tests of the Irish Banks as "credible and likely to increase the focus on Ireland's positive underlying economic trajectory".
An editorial that appeared in today's Irish Independent entitled 'We're riding our luck but the tide may have turned' in which Thomas Molloy argued that this positive report was in part based on the fact that Ireland's previous financial mismanagement has shown that we have the knowledge and experience to pull the nation out of it's self made hole. This does rather ignore the fact that we also possessed the ability to ignore clear warning signs and get ourselves into trouble. And lets not forget that Bertie Ahern, the Irish Prime Minister, said of those who were critical of both him and where he was taking the state at the height of the 'Celtic Tiger' could 'go hang' themselves. This is a Prime Minister and former Minister for Finance, who upon announcing his retirement from politics earlier this year was asked if he had any regrets or would he do anything differently, said;
“If I had seen the banking crisis coming. Nobody advised me, no economist, all those people now writing books saying ‘I told you so’ – none of them"
It seems that no Irish politician's career is complete until they've explained why something wasn't their fault.
While Thomas Molloy rightly points out that we won't know the accuracy of this report for years it is a clear sign that investors should "Jump in" to Ireland. It's all good, we're looking better, that extra €24bn the Irish banks needed last week has improved confidence in the Irish market. Clearly money well spent.
And here's the problem. The following are a selection of the headlines from the business section of today's Irish Independent;
Bank shares are volatile as Bank of Ireland begins disposal of €30bn assets
ECB hike will weaken countries like Ireland, top economist warns
Failure to get bank funding 'dents efforts at restoring confidence'
While we try to work out how far away that light at the tunnel is, we can't forget that there are no new jobs, there is no money to help Schools and Hospitals and there is no hope. Financial confidence is rated a more important commodity than hope. There is no plan for hope, there is no value for hope, there is no metric for hope.
Today was a red letter day for me. My youngest sister boarded a flight at Dublin Airport to start her life as a resident of the United States. The 20 years of investment the Irish state made in her education will now benefit a US bio-tech company. For her Dublin is now a holiday destination rather than her home. There will be trips back to Dublin for her, and holidays to LA for me, but it is hard to ignore that fact that once again, the Irish are being forced to leave for greener grass.