The 2007 Irish general election was held 1,309 days ago. Estimates at the time suggested that Fianna Fáil, the incumbent party, would see their 81 parliamentary seats reduced by as many as 20. In the end Fianna Fáil lost just 3 seats. Fine Gael, the main opposition party, increased their seat count from 32 to 51. With the help of the Green Party, Fianna Fáil became the senior party in a coalition government.
But that was 1,309 day ago, and today as Irish voters set out to elect the 31st Dáil, times have changed substantially. The once lauded Celtic tiger has become a cautionary tale. Financial mismanagement and political cronyism, of a probably criminal level, turned the ineptitude of Irish bankers into a national crisis.
Fianna Fáil have, after almost fifty years of continuous rule finally seen their policies of endemic corruption come home to roost. This is the party which has so accepted defeat that even if it were to win every seat it contested it would still be unable to form a majority government. Before a single vote has been cast, the party that has ruled the Republic of Ireland for most of the last fifty years has, quite simply, given up.
Frankly, it is no more than they deserve. They were seen as the pro-business, pro-development, pro-'cash in an envelope' party. This was the party whose senior members have been accused of gun running, corruption, accepting bribes, and ultimately of gross misconduct by an Irish President. Make no mistake, this was a party for whom the means meant nothing compared to the ends. Ireland is a country that will continue to pay the price for a political party that accepted its own well-being over the nations, over its citizens, and ultimately, over everything else. There can be few democratic counties in the world today who would have accepted Fianna Fáil's leaders as their premiers.
If one believes the press, the Republic of Ireland might see its first majority government in twenty-nine years, or it might not. In the space of seven days headlines have appeared in the national press suggesting both outcomes.
16th February - Press predict a Fine Gael majority
;)
23rd February - We're back to a coalition
Even if Fine Gael fail to win an overall majority, it seems likely that Enda Kenny will be the next Taoiseach of Ireland.
In its February 19th edition, the Economist suggested that Ireland's "underlying economy is resilient enough, and Ireland's demographic outlook is favourable enough, for it to return to a path of prosperity." Adding that "far from seeing Ireland as a case-study in what not to do, the troubled Mediterranean members of the euro would do well to learn from it".
The Republic of Ireland's immediate future seems far from bright, but if one is to look for a silver lining there is a possibility that the political party directly responsible for so many of the country's woes may be sidelined for the foreseeable future. No panacea for our current and future pain, but there is the slimmest of possibilities that a collective lesson may have been learnt.